By now, you’ve probably heard the following tidbit at least 1,000 times.
Or maybe, 3,974 would be a more appropriate estimate, given that it’s been that many days since the Detroit Pistons last won a playoff game.
When the Pistons open their first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday, they’ll have a chance to end a 10-game playoff losing streak that spans nearly 11 years.
Easier said than done.
Detroit’s late-season struggles earned them a date with the NBA’s best team, record-wise. It’s the first time since the 1973-74 season that Milwaukee (60-22) has accomplished that feat.
The Pistons (41-41) needed all 82 games to squeak into the playoffs. Here’s a look at how they square up against their division rival.
Head-to-head
Yes, I know. Come playoff time, you’re supposed to throw the regular season series out the window. But let’s review what happened to add some context.
The Bucks swept the Pistons in the regular season for the first time in the franchise history, winning all four meetings. Milwaukee won by an average of 14.8 points per game.
That statistic is somewhat misleading. The Bucks won both games at home by 23 points. Only the second meeting on Dec. 17 was particularly close, as Milwaukee escaped Little Caesars Arena with a 107-104 victory.
The Giannis Factor
Depending on who you ask, Bucks’ forward Giannis Antetokounmpo is the favorite to win Most Valuable Player. (I happen to think that it’s James Harden, but that’s another story for another day.)
Though technically listed as a power forward, that’s more of a formality. The 24-year-old can play all five positions. He’s a matchup nightmare for even the best defenders.
I mean, how exactly do you contain a 6-foot-11-inch scoring machine? Better yet, one that can bully his way from the perimeter to the rim like a guard?
Good question. The other 29 head coaches in the NBA would like to know.
Antetokounmpo averaged 20.8 points, 8.8 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game against the Pistons this season. Not bad, considering he finished 2018-19 with a stat line of 27.7/12.5/5.9.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1vErTOth58
His kryptonite is 3-point shooting. Giannis only connected on 25.6 of his triples during the regular season. However, he’s not the type of player that defenders should sag off of.
By daring him to shoot the three, you’re simultaneously ceding open floor space. And once he goes to his dribble, it’s nearly impossible to stop him. He scores 63.1 percent of his points in the paint
But where Antetokounmpo struggles is where his teammates pick up the slack.
Power of the pack
Former Piston Khris Middleton was named an All-Star for the first time in his career this season. Middleton is averaging 18.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game on 44.1 percent shooting. He’s also knocking down 37.8 percent of his 3-point attempts.
Veteran center Brook Lopez has transformed his game in recent years and provides Milwaukee with another weapon to stretch the floor. In his first eight seasons, Lopez was 3-for-31 from beyond the arc. Since 2016-17, he’s made 35.4 percent of his 1,224 3-point attempts.
Fortunately for Detroit, Milwaukee has been bitten by the injury bug. The Bucks are currently short four rotation players in Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic, Tony Snell and Donte DiVincenzo.
While known for his defense, Brogdon is an exceptional offensive talent. The combo guard is averaging 15.6 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game on 50.5 percent shooting. He’s also shooting a team-high 42.6 percent from beyond the arc.
But Milwaukee is deep. Like very deep. I haven’t even mentioned starting point guard Eric Bledsoe, who, like Brogdon, is a very competent two-way player.
The Bucks have the league’s best record for a reason. Not only do they feature a transcendent superstar, but a supporting cast of veterans that compliments his ability. That doesn’t bode well for Detroit.
Is Blake back?
At the time of this post, it’s unknown whether or not Blake Griffin will suit up for Game 1 on Sunday night. He was in street clothes for the Pistons’ victory over the Knicks on Wednesday.
Detroit is 2-5 without Griffin in the lineup this season. When he is on the floor, the Pistons have an offensive rating of 111.3 points per 100 possessions. That drops to 106.1 once he steps off the court.
He led Detroit in points (24.5), assists (5.4) and minutes per game (35.0) in 2018-19. Griffin is the only Piston who can consistently draw double teams on offense. I broke down his importance to the team, and his historic season, back in February.
Prediction
There’s no way to sugarcoat it. Dwane Casey and his Pistons face an uphill battle.
And if they’re without Blake Griffin, it could turn into a massacre.
Milwaukee is primed to challenge the other heavyweights for Eastern Conference supremacy. Aside from the frontcourt, the Bucks have the upper hand across the board.
The Pistons will fight, scrap and claw just like they’ve done all season long. But it won’t be enough. Barring a heroic performance from Griffin, they won’t last very long.
Bucks in four.
Brenden Welper 